Maple Leafs face nightmare scenario with goaltender Ilya Samsonov going all the way to arbitration

The Leafs came into the whole process with an offer of $2.4M, largely due to Samsonov's spotty numbers in the playoffs during his career and the fact that he doesn't have an overly large workload under his belt. The Leafs were fine with providing Samsonov with a raise on the $1.8M he earned last season, but can't come anywhere near the $4.9M that he's seeking.

If Samsonov's arbitration award comes in below $4,538,958, the Leafs will have no choice but to accept it and then move around some pieces and/or exercise a buyout on Matt Murray or T.J. Brodie to become cap compliant. However, if the award is over $4,538,958, the Leafs will have the choice to walk away from Samsonov, making him a free agent immediately.

Samsonov played well for the Leafs in the regular season last year, especially at home. In 42 appearances, the 26-year-old posted a 27-10-5 record, a 2.33 GAA and a .919 SV%, including 4 shutouts. Given what some of his peers have signed for in recent years with lower numbers, I'd say that there's a pretty good chance that his award comes in above the $4M mark.

The Leafs will be in one heck of a predicament if the arbitrator awards Samsonov something close to his $4.9M ask. If they walk away, they'll be relying on an inexperienced backup in Joseph Woll to take the reins as the team's starting goalie next year. Woll has just 11 games of experience in the regular season and 4 playoff appearances. Not exactly someone whose hands you want to place the fate of your entire season in.

The other thing this means is that even if the Leafs do retain Samsonov this year, he's likely gone as a UFA next summer, leaving the Leafs to find a new starting goalie in the same summer that the Auston Matthews and William Nylander contracts kick in. Less than ideal.

This one is an all-around disaster for the Leafs, unless the arbitration award ends up being under $4M.